Let's Play Doom

[ymarkov]

A meme popular in many circles, both left and right, is that Chinese holdings of US Treasury debt are a problem for the USA. Expressions include "the Chinese own us and our children" and "The Chicoms can ruin us any time."

I'm not saying that it's not a problem (heck, excessive debt is always a problem), but how exactly are these specific holdings a problem? So I'd like to play a doomsday scenario or two. I'll be the Fed/Tresury, and you be the Chinese Politburo/Central Bank. You have $1 trillion in T-bonds. Make yourself a problem.

Comments

[ymarkov.livejournal.com]

BTW, China becoming hostile would be a plus to the debt situation. All the T-bonds are just electronic entries at the Treasury. We know exactly which ones China owns, and could freeze not just the payments, but even the very trading in them.

[24816.livejournal.com]

Yeah, USSR’s companies had special ways to trade funds and the rest of population also used to believe in rubl’. For awhile.

There is a speculation that Jews live more or less comfortable in their host countries for about 400 years, and a couple of years ago they celebrated 350 years of first synagogue in America. So that could be an indication that 50 years from now US will be a very different place.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-3X5hIFXYU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/5994047/Muslim-Europe-the-demographic-time-bomb-transforming-our-continent.html

We can predict only things that are already happening, but the history is full of unexpected turns.
If I recall it right in 1890 Hertzel was flirting with German Kaiser to get Palestine for Jews, promising that they will use German language, architecture, and government structure. To which Kaiser replied that it’s impossible, because for that all world’s empires should fall apart. Which exactly happened in 50 years. I cannot even list all of them: Russian, German, Austro-Hungarian, British, Turkish, Japan… – all mighty empires fell apart as if precisely for creation of Israel!

Besides it is hard to predict outcome of the any war even financial.